Supporters of Vice President Kamala Harris react to her speaking during a campaign rally at West Allis Central High School on July 23, 2024 in West Allis, Wisconsin. Harris made her first campaign appearance as the party’s presidential candidate, with an endorsement from President Joe Biden. (Photo by Jim Vondruska/Getty Images)
In her search for a running mate in her presidential bid, Vice President Kamala Harris is said to be eyeing a clutch of contenders with executive experience enhanced by an outside-the-Beltway flavor — at least five governors from the Rust Belt, South and Midwest.
Harris, if nominated by Democrats and elected, would be the first woman to serve as president, the first president of South Asian descent and the second Black president. She joined the U.S. Senate in 2017 after a career in California state politics.
That background may compel her to seek a white governor without D.C. baggage, experts said, a description several reported contenders fit. Most observers expect Harris to choose a man, though Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer would also make a strong case.
Govs. Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania, Tim Walz of Minnesota, Andy Beshear of Kentucky and Roy Cooper of North Carolina are seen as top-tier candidates to balance Harris’ profile. And U.S. Sen. Mark Kelly of Arizona, who had a high-profile career before politics as an astronaut and Navy captain, would also complement Harris.
Selecting another woman, most likely Whitmer, may contradict the conventional political wisdom to seek a counterweight, but would allow the Democratic ticket to highlight one of its strongest campaign messages in advocacy of reproductive rights.
But experts told States Newsroom multiple factors swirl around a vice presidential pick, expected in coming weeks as Harris seeks election as the Democratic presidential nominee in a virtual roll call vote as soon as Aug. 1, following President Joe Biden’s decision to not run. She could try for that desired balance, or play to her own strengths, or bestow the honor on a swing state key to a win.
Ultimately, Harris’ selection will send a message about her decision-making as president, said Joel Goldstein, a professor of law emeritus at Saint Louis University and an expert on the vice presidency.
“Oftentimes the impact a running mate can have is as much in the messages it sends about the presidential candidate as it is something that the running mate contributes independently,” Goldstein said.
Presidential nominees typically look for a running mate who will even out perceived weaknesses among different constituencies of their party.
Think, for example, of Trump picking Indiana Gov. Mike Pence in 2016, hoping the selection of a mild-mannered Midwesterner with deep ties to the GOP’s evangelical community would temper the bombastic New Yorker’s reputation among the party’s social conservatives.
Or the youthful Illinois Sen. Barack Obama in 2008 selecting Biden, who’d spent decades in the Senate by then and unsuccessfully sought the presidency, to counter criticisms that Obama was too inexperienced to be commander-in-chief.
Goldstein said a vice presidential pick should not typically be the selector’s “ideological clone” so that it “broadens the appeal of the ticket” to wider populations around the country.
Voters often see women candidates and candidates of color as more liberal than their voting record would reflect, which could lead Harris to favor a running mate seen as more moderate.
Harris has several choices that could reach voters for whom she doesn’t have a natural appeal.
Choosing a white male governor from the Midwest or South would provide demographic and geographic balance, Rebecca Pearcey, a Democratic campaign veteran and partner with the public affairs firm Bryson Gillette, said.
Walz, who grew up in a town of 400, and Beshear, the popular two-term governor of a rural, red state, would complement Harris’ roots growing up in Oakland, California, and dealing with Bay Area politics, she said.
“You’re covering a lot of bases by picking somebody from a very different demographic background than the candidate,” Pearcey said. “Which I think is smart.”
While presidential candidates generally seek a running mate for balance, they don’t always, Christopher Devine, a political science professor at the University of Dayton who has written two books on vice presidential candidates, said.
A running mate who emphasizes an advantage can also help a ticket, he said.
“When it’s something that’s actually a strength of yours, there’s nothing wrong with doubling down,” Devine said.
In 1992, Bill Clinton, the Arkansas governor, chose another younger Southern Democrat in U.S. Sen. Al Gore of Tennessee, but that helped emphasize the appeal of the youthful “New Democrat” candidate.
If Harris decides to go that route, Whitmer, who centered her 2022 reelection race on abortion rights, would be the “obvious” choice, Devine said.
“If they see that as a strength that Harris is a better messenger on this issue because she’s a woman –?which obviously is what the Biden campaign believed – then maybe picking a woman is helpful,” he said.
Most important for Harris is to pick someone voters believe is qualified, Devine said.
“Perceptions of a running mate’s readiness to be vice president or even president can actually affect how voters see the presidential candidate’s judgment,” he said.
Pearcey agreed.
“She has to have an eye on ready-to-govern,” Pearcey said of Harris. “Who’s ready to step into the role of vice president and can take on some policy initiatives?”
Harris’ vice presidential pick would also have to be someone voters could see assuming the role of the president if Harris was no longer able to fulfill her term.
Kathleen Dolan, a political science professor at the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, pointed to previous vice presidential picks, like the late Sen. John McCain’s running mate Sarah Palin of Alaska, that left some voters wondering if they were ready to govern.
Dolan also noted that Trump’s running mate, J.D. Vance, doesn’t have the political experience many expect in a vice president. Vance, 39, has been the junior senator from Ohio since 2023 and before that had no political experience.
“I think she (Harris) will probably be focused on somebody who has more government experience, probably not somebody quite as young as Sen. Vance,” Dolan said.
That could work against Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, who ran a surprisingly strong race in the 2020 Democratic primary, but whose only elected experience is as the mayor of South Bend, Indiana.
“He’s been a mayor and he’s been a secretary for a couple of years,” Dolan said. “So he doesn’t have the political background.”
Candidates for president and vice president also need to be able to work together, experts said.
Part of Harris’ process for vetting candidates will include her chemistry with each, Thomas Mills, a Democratic consultant, said.
Mills noted Clinton and Gore’s bond with each other was part of their appeal.
“There was chemistry between them,” he said. “And it was pretty clear on the campaign trail.”
Two governors under consideration –?Beshear and Cooper –?have existing relationships with Harris from when all three were state attorneys general last decade.
The list of reported contenders, which also includes Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker, is more full of governors than usual.
That could be because Harris is looking for someone with a record of delivering results and navigating the political currents in a busy state capital.
“It goes to the ability to govern,” Pearcey said.
And governors’ need to balance their states’ budgets and deliver tangible results gives them a more moderate, practical image, Devine said.
“Governors tend to deal with more pragmatic issues and they’re not as mixed up in the most divisive national issues,” he said. “Maybe voters will see them as more moderate and pragmatic.”
And choosing a governor would not be as disruptive for federal politics.
If Kelly, the only member of Congress thought to be in contention, became vice president, it would force Democrats to defend his Senate seat in 2026, creating a swing-state campaign in a midterm election that typically disfavors the president’s party.
Running mates are often chosen to appeal to the electorate of a particular battleground state or region.
That would boost the case for Shapiro, whose nearly 15-point win in the critical state of Pennsylvania in 2022 is a strong part of his resume, as well as Kelly and Whitmer.
But there is actually little data to support the home-state advantage theory, Devine said. And making a choice voters see as politically motivated could backfire, which could come into play for Shapiro, who has been in office for less than two years.
“If they are picking Josh Shapiro to win Pennsylvania –?like, if he was the governor of New Jersey they wouldn’t bother –?then I think that’s a bad pick,” Devine said. “If they believe in him because he’s perceived as a moderate, then that could be a good swing-state strategy.”
Dolan said Harris’ week-old campaign has differed in which swing states it’s targeting and that her vice presidential pick would have to appeal to a wide range of electorates.
She said the Harris campaign may be trying to broaden its reach to voters outside the Rust Belt states such as Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania in which Biden invested.
“I think they see a potential for different electoral combinations, and that the more diverse populations of places like Arizona or Georgia or Nevada could help in ways that they wouldn’t have helped President Biden,” said Dolan. Harris’ running mate would have to reach these additional audiences as well.
Adding Cooper to the presidential ticket would create a unique challenge in North Carolina.
Under the state’s constitution, whenever the governor leaves the state, the lieutenant governor assumes the power of that office. That might be a problem for North Carolina Democrats, who describe Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson as a right-wing Republican.
With Cooper on the campaign trail in contested states across the country, Robinson, who is the GOP candidate to replace the term-limited Cooper, would have his hands on the levers of state executive power.
“I’m tempted to say that it makes him not really a viable candidate,” Devine said. “Is he that far above the other candidates that it’s worth just messing up North Carolina politics?”
But Mills, who is based in North Carolina, said Robinson’s own race for governor would temper the risk of giving him the power of the office. Leading up to Election Day, Robinson will likely be proceeding with caution.
“That’s somewhat of a concern,” Mills said of the state’s succession rules’ impact on Cooper’s chances. “But I don’t think it’s that much of a concern, because it would be an awful risky thing going down the stretch as the gubernatorial candidate for him to look like he overreached.”
Asher Hildebrand, a public policy professor at Duke University, also made clear that Robinson probably wouldn’t have a major impact while Cooper would be campaigning.
“It would be pretty extraordinary for Robinson to do anything that couldn’t be undone immediately by Cooper through executive order,” Hildebrand said.
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